The Israeli Army Failed to Destroy Hamas. It Certainly Can't Defeat Hezbollah - Opinion - Haaretz.com
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant's statements from a conversation with soldiers along the northern border, in which he said the Israel Defense Forces was shifting its focus to the north and then raised the possibility of a ground offensive against Hezbollah in the near future, are worrying. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and IDF Chief of Staff Herzl Halevi have also made similar statements recently.
Yet these three haven't even achieved any of the goals they had set for the war in the Gaza Strip. The foremost of these goals was "destroying Hamas and freeing all the hostages." But in reality, Hamas still controls the whole Strip, including its tunnel city and all of Gaza's residents, in every walk of life.
The IDF has no way of ending its rule, even if the organization is weaker than it was in the past. The continued fighting has lost any purpose, and the war of attrition is destroying everything good in Israel – its economy, its international relations, its social resilience and its fighters' motivation. Many reservists are refusing to be called upagain and again.
Nevertheless, ignoring these grave facts, Netanyahu, Gallant and Halevi intend on launching a ground war against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Any such war is likely to deal Israel a mortal, terminal blow. The IDF, which failed to destroy Hamas, certainly won't be able to destroy Hezbollah, which is hundreds of times more powerful than Hamas.
A leaflet that was distributed in southern Lebanon, on Sunday.
Because the IDF's high command slashed the ground forces by 66 percent compared to what they were 20 years ago, it doesn't have enough troops to remain for long period of time in any territory it conquers, nor does it have troops to relieve those who are fighting. Consequently, the IDF is forced to leave any territory it captures, which is what happened in Gaza and will happen in Lebanon. But there's no point in capturing territory only to leave it, because Hezbollah will promptly return to those areas.
Yet the biggest problem with a ground offensive against Hezbollah is that it might well lead to a multifront war in which thousands of missiles, rockets and drones will be launched at Israel's home front while ground wars break out on at least five fronts – Lebanon, the Golan Heights, the West Bank, groups of extremists inside Israel and pro-Iranian forces who infiltrate via the Jordanian border. And all that will be on top of the continued fighting in Gaza.
But since almost all of the IDF's ground forces will be concentrated in the north for any war with Hezbollah, there won't be enough troops left to defend the other fronts. The IDF will be seen abroad as a spineless army with no capabilities. The great tragedy, which many people evidently still haven't grasped, is the IDF's deterioration over the last 20 years, which is what has left it unable to win a war. The statements by Netanyahu, Gallant and Halevi are all based on capabilities that don't exist.
They are therefore throwing sand in the public's eyes and endangering our very existence. Furthermore, they have also brought about the collapse of the deal to free the hostages and end the war – the only way to escape these dangerous straits.
A senior U.S. official, who is more aware than they are of Israel's true situation, warned against an all-out war with Hezbollah, saying that any escalation could lead to catastrophic and unforeseen results. He also said a full-scale war could be avoided, but if it did erupt, then both sides would pay a heavy price. Thousands would die, maybe tens of thousands. And infrastructure would be badly damaged.
Moreover, he said, Israel won't be able to easily destroy Hezbollah and apparently won't even achieve most of its goals. It would be an extensive war, and many people on both sides would die. Residents of Israel's north wouldn't be able to return home quickly, he continued, and any such war would in any case end with a deal whose outlines are already clear. And that, he concluded, is why the Americans are trying to reach such a deal now.
Maj. Gen. (res.) Itzhak Brik has commanded the 36th Division, the Southern Corps (the 441st) and the military colleges. He also served for 10 years as the IDF's ombudsman